Watch out for ‘factory Q/A’ only – this isn’t acceptable. The conventional definition of AQL is completely misleading and totally bunk. Why do entrepreneurs fall for scams so often? But take dollars only, not services. The Part Stress section leads off the document and includes a number of equations that predict the failure rate for a wide variety of electrical components. In more than a decade of designing and building electronics, we’ve never seen an Internet-sourced factory relationship succeed in the short term. The operation load, i.e. Our findings on the percentage of failure have also been validated by CB Insights - thanks guys! In many cases, 217Plus failure rate predictions are not as pessimistic as MIL-HDBK-217. Strong teams, resolute investors, and a great deal of money allows even the inexperienced to find success. - Any company with less than 10 employees who insists on having a team ‘on the ground’ in Asia. MTBF for electronics life entitlement measurements is a meaningless term. It isn’t their fault that they don’t understand this concept. This document, published by the International Organization for Standardization (ISO), is an international standard with equivalents in all national regulations (ANSI/ASQC Z1.4, NF06-022, BS 6001, DIN 40080). Differentiate between engineering professionals and those who have experience manufacturing at volume. Also, the types of parts supported in each reliability prediction standards varies, so it can be ideal to select the reliability prediction standard which supports the types of parts included in your design. Rebel is a user-centered strategy and design agency located in Boulder, CO with offices in San Francisco and Hong Kong. They live with electronics every day and have seen hundreds of products heralded as ‘the next big thing.’ They’re over it. Manufacturing CE is wrought with fraud and scams like any other profession. The NPRD and EPRD databases include failure data on a wide range of electrical components and electromechanical parts and assemblies. What are the Primary Reliability Prediction Standards? Our goal here is to put the scam artists out of business and to bring more transparency to manufacturing. We LOVE our American manufacturing partners. We can do better. You can also mix and match standards. Hand one of these Fortune manufacturers your product requirements and after several months you’ll have a container of product delivered to your door. ((Appendix ONE is a list of scams we currently know to be operating in the San Francisco/Denver startup communities.)). Additionally, the πE, which factors in the environmental condition, is factored into the overall failure rate calculation. Sometimes this is built into the BOM, while other times it is a separate charge. The American entrepreneur is trained to brush aside the naysayers, take risks, trade human expertise for equity and discover shortcuts that have been overlooked by their slower corporate counterparts. How do I choose which Reliability Prediction method to use? With piles of cash, these entrepreneurs can afford to make mistakes and still succeed. Depending what sector, you are manufacturing for, it could be as high as 3 … So it is best to review the devices you use in your products to see what model to use. Several failure rate data sources are available commercially that focus on commercial components, including some non-electronic components. At any rate, the original point of this post was to question what rates of failure are acceptable, and what I find amazing is that there is still an expectation that you can have literally millions of homes built without issue, have a few dozens experience a problem, and it results in this level of rhetoric. These measures represent the result of the volume leakage rate for that specific If it sounds too good to be true, it is. Because Guanxi is written about so little and remains a mystery to most, overlooking it is a leading source of failure for American startups. Statistical analysis was then used to determine the equations which best modeled the failure characteristics of the accumulated data. How Were Reliability Prediction Methods Developed? Telcordia Issue 3 is a commonly used standard, while Telcordia SR-332 Issue 4 represents the latest Telcordia Reliability Prediction standard. - Any company who tells you that the factory will do QA to your satisfaction without guaranteeing the work on their own. The person you are looking for talks to, visits, or builds with their Asian partners on a weekly basis, for years. All reliability predictions standards mentioned here are widely known and accepted. Once the device failure rates are evaluated, they are summed up to determine a base system failure rate. We know of at least two sales groups targeting local California/Colorado startups right now (late 2017). See how Relyence’s reliability prediction software can help with failure rate calculations – start a free trial today! There are several aspects to consider when selecting a Reliability Prediction method to use for your analyses. Often, organizations think that they will achieve better quality with AQL sampling plans t… Failure rate is the frequency with which an engineered system or component fails, expressed in failures per unit of time. Your Bill of Materials is a list of commodity components. Models for components not found in MIL-HDBK-217, such as lithium batteries, hard disk drives, AC/DC power supplies, gyroscopes, and many more. Manufacturing, like everything else, becomes much easier when there aren’t financial barriers holding you back. Early life calculations to help analyze failure rates during initial product introduction, or the early life phase, when infant mortality rates are a factor. Solder joint reliability is defined as the ability of your product’s solder joints to function under given conditions and for a specified period of time without exceeding acceptable failure levels. Reliability specialists often describe the lifetime of a population of products using a graphical representation called the bathtub curve. This article pro… Failure data spans a variety of environments and quality levels, allowing you to select components that most accurately reflect your usage. We believe that in the software world, and in the technology space, we must always be moving ahead. Good manufacturing reps guarantee their work. For example, the equation shown above for Microcircuits, Gate/Logic Arrays and Microprocessors in Parts Count is: where λg is a generic failure rate based on a subset of information; in this example it is based on device technology type, environment, and device complexity. The factors in the equation are various operating, rated, temperature, and environmental conditions of the device in the system. Good manufacturing reps will advocate for particular CM’s, but should honest about what those CM’s can/can’t do well. We believe in always creating, always innovating, and always being the best. In many cases, Parts Count is used to start a Reliability Prediction analysis. I have measured quality in two ways: by the incidence of “internal” and of “external” failures. Engineers or product managers who happened to go to Asia with a large company most likely don’t know that relationship is the most important driver of success in overseas manufacturing. When utilizing NPRD or EPRD databases, there is no equation to be evaluated, and, therefore, no data parameters to enter. Non-repetitive engineering (bulletproofing the circuit board), Firmware design (software for the chipset), Industrial design (what it is going to look like – in CAD), Proof of concept test (ugly box working and tested), Prototyping the complete unit (prettier box), Sourcing components in Asia (a single critical component can take days/weeks to source), Tooling (to make plastics molds/metal stampings/etc), UL/ETL safety compliance (required to sell in the USA), CE compliance (required to sell in the EU), Fixture creation (testing equipment for the assembly line), Factory-level quality assurance and safety compliance, Factory auditing for social/environmental concerns. 8-10 cc/min and still be considered an acceptable part based on its use and test specifications. They declare themselves to be salespeople and speak with all the right buzzwords, and they make promises that seem almost too good to be true. Over the years there have been many updates to the MIL-HDBK-217 document, which have resulted in the suffix designations in the document name: MIL-HDBK-217D and MIL-HDBK-217E Notice 1 for example. Additionally, Telcordia includes the ability to calculate an infant mortality failure rates. Yes, prototyping has gotten much simpler and cheaper in recent years, but rapid-prototyping has had little effect on manufacturing a new CE product at scale. Intelligent startup teams with manufacturing experience use this model to find a good ‘manufacturing rep’ who will partner the startup with the right CM in Asia. Guanxi is so important to manufacturing that our company is still discovering perks to strong relationships after 12 years of working with the same partners. We call this the ‘Outsourcing Model.’ If you can raise four to six million dollars and are comfortable not learning the mysteries of manufacturing, this model is for you. These referral sites were intended to serve the market for pre-made products, not for building anything new or unique. For example, many military and defense-based contracts will require you to use MIL-HDBK-217. | Calculating Failure Rates with Reliability Prediction Software. Look for companies that have prototyped at least a dozen products and have built in volume at least 3 times. Look for companies that guarantee to a 5% failure rate (that’s half the CE average) or to zero-failure if desired. China’s GJB/z 299 is the most widely used Reliability Prediction standard in the extensive Chinese market. The basis for the Telcordia models is what is referred to as the “Black Box Technique.” Telcordia SR-332 includes equations for the black-box steady state failure rates of devices, as well as equations for the upper confidence level and standard deviation of the black box steady-state failure rates. Five of the most widely used Reliability Prediction standards for reliability analysis. Even if an entrepreneur travels to China to meet with their new partner, or lives there for months, he/she doesn’t have the solid relationship necessary to build at volume – it isn’t a cultural norm to develop a working relationship in months. How To Use Failure Rate Predictions to Improve Reliability. For this example, let’s imagine an IoT device with a Bluetooth radio, a battery and USB charging cable. The failure rate assumed by an electronic component, when operated at rated electrical stresses is called the nominal failure rate. The downside to the Bootstrap Model is that most of the scams in manufacturing are perpetrated here. RUN. The failure rate estimates from China’s GJB/z 299 tend to be very divergent from the other standards, especially for microelectronic devices. As with MIL-HDBK-217, there is a Part Count reliability prediction intended for use in early design when all data parameters are not yet finalized, and provides a simpler approach to prediction calculations. These companies build many of the big name products we see on the shelves today from HP, Sony, Kensington, and Monster Cable. The manufacturing industry is a dirty business with charlatans and naiveté at every turn. Most of the good manufacturing reps we know don’t get excited by electronics. But where do you start? It is now used throughout a broad range of industries, including those related to military and defense applications. Calculating Failure Rates with Reliability Prediction Software, How to Perform Reliability Predictions Easily and Efficiently, How Your Reliability Tools Can Work Together to Achieve Maximum Results, An Overview of Reliability Analysis Tools and Techniques, Compute the upper confidence level of steady state failure rates, Integrate laboratory data from devices, units, or systems with or without burn-in data, Integrate field data from devices, units, or systems with or without burn-in data, Determine early life factors based on no burn-in, limited burn-in, or extensive burn-in. The result of a reliability prediction analysis is the predicted failure rate or Mean Time Between Failures (MTBF) of a product or system, and of its subsystems, components, and parts. This takes years. Zone III, is termed the Wearout period and is characterized by an increasing failure rate as a result of equipment aging and deterioration. Even for those entrepreneurs who understand and accept the difficulty of the manufacturing process, there are still the cultural differences between the United States and China (or Vietnam, Singapore, Taiwan, or Japan) to navigate. Complex systems and cultural differences in CE can be managed and learned. In some cases, Telcordia analyses are initially performed to obtain the black-box steady state failure rates, and then updated as laboratory, field, and burn-in data become available. However, some reliability prediction software packages do not require you to enter all the data parameters and will use average default values, which enables you to perform a prediction with minimal input. The failure rate models of 217Plus have their roots in MIL-HDBK-217, but have enhancements to include the effects of operating profiles, cycling factors, and process grades on reliability. Today, Telcordia is commonly used in the commercial sector. Honesty about capabilities. Also, corresponding parameters are presented for use in Bayesian updates. The Part Count section of 217Plus includes a number of tables for device failure rates that are based on the combination of the environment and operating profile of the system. If they’ve only sourced in China a few times, understand you are taking a risk. Tip: scam artists usually mention their factory partners by name early on, while good manufacturing reps will safeguard their partners’ identity until you’ve negotiated a contract. The Part Stress section of MIL-HDBK-217 includes complete details on all the equations and how to assess the variables used in the equations. We’ve included a list of the qualities you should look for in choosing one of these companies in Appendix TWO. In a reliability sense, components can be treated as fractions of the product and in most cases links in a chain. These groups target meetups and tech accelerators and usually connect with entrepreneurs via email. Failure rates obtained from this source for the period 1999–2001 are presented. The Part Stress section includes complete details on all the equations and how to assess the variables used in the equations. It’s time to get smart about how to manufacture electronics. Once the device level black-box steady state failure rates are determined, the unit level and system level failure rates can be calculated. RUN! Relyence® is a registered trademark of Relyence Corporation. You scan the database of components and select one that matches, or most closely matches, the device you are modeling. The best tools will even allow you to mix and match standards, provide built-in component libraries, and enable you to view how design changes impact reliability. If a manufacturing rep has to babysit their CM they don’t have Guanxi. They didn’t go overseas a few times to visit, communicate over email or get quotes, rather they went to dinner several times a month for five years before giving this CM a contract. Telcordia also includes the ability to adjust failure rate estimates based on laboratory test data and/or field data; MIL-HDBK-217 does not include this type of adjustment ability. Viewed 1k times 0. At the early design stage, Reliability Predictions enable you to perform an assessment of likely failure rate characteristics. The second way to manufacture a startup CE device still involves money, but only half as much as the VC Model requires. Ignoring Guanxi doesn’t make it go away. By factoring in this information, the 217Plus analysis will provide a more accurate predicted failure rate estimation. - Any engineer or product manager touting that they’ve ‘worked with HP’ or ‘lived in Asia with the Fitbit team’ or ‘helped design Pebble’ or have other big-company experience. Each Reliability Prediction standard offers a set of mathematical formulas to model and calculate the failure rate of a variety of electromechanical components that make up a product or system. Work on 217Plus was started under Department of Defense contracts with the Reliability Analysis Center (RAC) and Reliability Information Analysis Center (RIAC), and was released originally under the name PRISM. We need to keep pace with all the new technological innovations, as well as new methodologies in industries. The Parts Count reliability prediction is useful in early design stages when the design is still in progress and not all operating parameters are known. Good CM’s don’t produce tools or circuit boards by hand. What these ‘factory investors’ don’t tell you is that they are working on commission, or in one popular instance, supporting a crowd-funding platform that is really a matchmaking service for a few big CM’s and Alibaba advertisers. 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